The Mission of Futures Research Website (FRW) a division of Webtrading Portal is giving traders access to knowledge required to trade the commodity futures, forex, options and stock market successfully to receive the financial rewards by profitably trading the markets - Always Keep in Mind, it's Your Money and Your Money Matters!
There are significant problems and issues regarding back testing of trades. Back-testing and simulated trading involving non-real-time trading can sometimes be of dubious value. That's why they don't necessarily work well and are far from a reliable money-making trading system when based on back-tested P&L results when traded in real-time with real trading profits and real losses.
There are several reasons why back-testing and trade simulations may not be reliable in real time commodity trading. For example, involving the daily high and low data, you don't really know if the market ever actually traded at that high or low price (after your order was in-place) so you may not know for sure if your simulated stop-loss or trade exit order was really hit and executed, or perhaps not.
If you develop a new back-tested trading system featuring trading rules such as this simple free trading system where you enter the market by going short after 4 straight up-days, followed by 1 wide range down-day breaking the low of the previous 4-days by 1-tick. This, over time its price chart will tend to look more bullish than it really was.
That's because your chart analysis may not take into full consideration the magnitude of the large down-days since it appears to be more bullish over time when the large down-days are actually more bearish overall vs the series of small movement up-days.
That's a more or less simple example of needing long-range time-spans doing commodities futures trading research and technical analysis done on long-range back-tested market data and using sound rules to develop a good trading methodology which was time-tested for future real-time trading situations, involving position trading or day trading, based on sound trading principles and proven trading methods.
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